Most people have a decent understanding of pot odds - whether the amount of chips in the pot justifies making a call - but they fail to realize that making this calculation only solves part of the poker equation. Often, these players forget to think about how the rest of the hand is going to play out if they make a call, and fail to factor that information into their calculations. That's where implied odds come into effect.
In short, implied odds are a way to calculate the amount of money that you can possibly win if you make your hand. To put it another way, your implied odds are the total amount you could win divided by what you're putting into the pot. Suppose you have 7-8 of diamonds on the turn, and there are two diamonds on the board. There are 1,000 chips in the pot and your opponent bets 500. You're almost certain your opponent has top pair and isn't on a diamond draw, so catching a seven or eight just won't cut it. That leaves nine outs to your flush draw - you need pot odds of about 4 to 1 to make a call, but you're only getting 3 to 1. Now, if your opponent has a lot more chips left in front of him and you think he'll pay you of if you hit your hand, implied odds will come into play. Say your opponent will pay off at least the pot - 1,500 chips in this case - when you make your hand. You're calling 500 to make 3,000, implied odds of 6 to 1. That's more than enough to justify trying to suck out on him. While your total implied odds may be larger if you're playing a Pot-Limit or No-Limit game, the concept of implied odds is often more relevant in Limit poker where you can usually determine how likely you are to get your opponent to call an extra bet or two on the river. In Pot-Limit and No-Limit games you often have no idea of how much bigger the pot could get or if your opponent will even bet at all. Like all the poker games, your implied odds in any hand are also strongly influenced by your opponent in the hand. Is he loose? Tight? Will he call a bet on the river with top pair and a weak kicker or second pair? You need to use your knowledge of your opponent's style to help determine what your potential pay-off for the hand may be. You're going to have to take a guess as to how many chips your opponent will be willing to commit to the hand, but you can make an educated guess based on your past experiences with that player. Implied odds are much more complicated to figure out than pot odds. You're not only thinking about what hand you have at the moment and what your odds are, you're thinking about how the hand is going to play out in the future on all fronts. That's the difference between implied odds and pot odds. When you figure it out, it's a very powerful concept. The more you're thinking about implied odds and the future of a hand, the more you're thinking like a pro... Now that you have an understanding of the differences between pot odds and implied odds, it’s time to look at some of the more advanced concepts involved with implied odds, along with some common mistakes that many players make by misapplying these rules. -
Estimating Implied Odds – One of the most common errors that many players – both amateur and professional alike - make is to overestimate their implied odds in a given hand. For example, in season one of Poker After Dark, a certain well-known pro called a very strong bet of mine on the turn with nothing more than a gut-shot straight draw. He reasoned that I would never put him on a straight if he hit his hand and that I would pay him off on the river if he caught his four-outer. While he may have been right, in theory, he still made a huge mistake to call me in this hand because even if all of my chips ended up in the center, he still wasn’t getting the right odds to call. Let’s look at the numbers to see what I mean. My opponent was looking for four cards to make his hand on the river, which means he only had about a 9 percent chance of hitting. This means he needed implied of odds of at least 9-1 to justify his call, which based on the size of my remaining chip stack, he wasn’t even close to getting. Generally speaking, implied odds aren’t going to help you if you’re looking for four or five outs to make your hand. Ideally, you should have nine or more cards that can make your hand before you start worrying about the implied odds in a hand. -
Miscalculating Implied Odds – One of the most common mistakes I see is when players think they’re getting implied odds, but really aren’t. For example, let’s say two players are involved in a hand and one of them pushes all-in on the turn. The second player in the hand is on either a flush or a straight draw, and makes the call. If the pot odds are correct here, it’s a good call. However, if the pot odds are bad, so is the call because there aren’t any more chips going into the pot on the river, which means the implied odds in this hand simply don’t exist. By failing to make the distinction between pot odds and implied odds, many inexperienced players end up putting their chips at risk more often than they should. -
Telegraphing Your Hand – There are many times when players will properly calculate their implied odds in a hand and make a good call only to find they can’t get paid off when they hit their hands. Why you ask? The answer is simple: they telegraph their hand. There’s nothing wrong with taking your time when you’re faced with a big decision in a hand. Just remember though, the longer you take to determine what you’re going to do, the more information you may be giving your opponent about your cards. Let’s say you took your time calling on the flop and then lead out after a flush card comes on the turn. Chances are your opponent will drop his hand assuming – probably rightly – that you just made your flush. If your play in a hand looks obvious, it probably is, which means the implied odds you thought you had after the flop probably never even existed in the first place. In a practical sense, this means that you should factor your opponent’s style into your equation when you’re thinking about your implied odds in a hand. If he’s loose and a gambler, your odds are going to be better than if he’s tight and solid. -
Protecting Your Hand - On the flip side of the coin, you should learn to protect your big hands against opponents who may be drawing against you. Limit your bets to about half the size of the pot to make sure you’re not giving them the right odds to call. If they do call and a scare card hits the board, you can still negate their implied odds by checking your hand down or letting it go if your opponent leads out with a bet. -
Beware of Negative Implied Odds – This is one of the harder – and most important – concepts to grasp. Negative implied odds mean that you need to be worried about hitting your hand and still paying off an opponent who hit a better hand against you. If you bet out after making your Jack-high flush and your opponent raises behind you, you may have to pay him off even if you think he’s holding a better flush. One way to handle this situation and to limit your potential losses is to think of the total pot as being worth a little less than it actually is before you consider making your call. If the odds don’t add up, proceed with caution.
Learning the nuances of implied odds takes time and practice, but in the long run, mastering this part of the game is worth the effort. Learn to start thinking about what may possibly happen on later streets in a hand before you commit to any action early on and you’ll be well on your way to the next level. Andy Bloch You Can Play Online Poker With Andy Bloch At Full Tilt
|